投行要裁人了

The Square Mile may have been braced for a downturn this year, but there are already fears that the clouds gathering over the City of London job market are even blacker than envisaged only two months ago.

Not since the bursting of the dotcom bubble eight years ago have investment bankers in the Square Mile and Canary Wharf faced such uncertainty about their future. With large financial institutions continuing to reveal fresh losses from exposure to the subprime mortgage crisis, few can be sure they will still have a job at the end of 2008.

For the top brass who run investment banks, the uncertain economic outlook is a huge management challenge. This industry is renowned for axing jobs at the first sign of a market deterioration, but the reality is more subtle. No bank wants to cut too deep and lose its competitive edge when the market recovers. Nor do banks want to be seen to be the first to make lay-offs, which amounts to a public confession that its bankers are twiddling their thumbs.

There are also morale issues.

“I've been through several downturns, and you really don't want to be cutting lots of people if you can avoid it,” says one investment banking veteran. “It saps morale. It's a horrible atmosphere to work in.”

Against that backdrop, investment banks are revising their headcount requirements on almost a weekly basis. But many senior bankers admit privately that they are preparing to make lay-offs numbering into the hundreds later this year should the situation fail to improve.

Most banks paid out decent bonuses this year to retain staff for fear of losing top talent to rivals. But Michael Karp, chief executive of Options Group, the global executive search and consulting business, says they might pull the trigger once their first-quarter results are published.

“Banks are taking a soft approach to cutting jobs. They managed their compensation risk [bonuses] very well and are hoping to do the same with headcount,” Mr Karp says.

There is already some hard evidence of a weakening in the job market.

Experian, the market researcher, found a 45 per cent drop in new vacancies in the City between November and December last year, against only 16 per cent the year before. It anticipates that 10,000 jobs will be shed by the year-end.

A managing director of one big European investment bank says the industry will cut as many posts as feasible, which means about 15 per cent of total headcount. On this pessimistic view, City-related job cuts could exceed 50,000 this year.

“The further out you look, the worse it looks,” he says. Work is short, he adds – there is little evidence of new mandates for deals or capital fundraisings, the bread and butter of investment banking.

Another London-based managing director, at a US firm, says: “Any investment bank that [says it] knows what its headcount is going to be at the end of this year is lying.”

He says his bank is being more aggressive this year in its annual cull. “This year we really are managing out our under-performers,” he says.

Meanwhile, bankers on the ground say they are scrambling off to meetings with potential clients to capture whatever morsels of business there are – and not just because they want to create the impression of being busy.

As one banker, who raises funds for companies by selling new shares on the stock market, says: “You're terrified that all of a sudden a big piece of business comes along, and you've missed it – you've missed the one ticket that's going.”

伦敦金融城可能为今年的低迷做好了准备，但人们已经在担心，积聚在伦敦金融城(City of London)就业市场上方的阴云会比两个月前所想象的更为厚重。

自8年前互联网泡沫破裂以来，伦敦金融城和金丝雀码头(Canary Wharf)的投资银行家还没有感到过如此难以把握未来。随着大型金融机构继续公布次级抵押贷款危机带来的新亏损，几乎没有人敢确定，到2008年底，他们还会拥有工作。

对于投资银行的最高管理层，不确定的经济前景是一个巨大的管理挑战。投资银行业以一出现市场恶化迹象就会裁员而闻名，但现实情况更加微妙。没有一家银行想过度裁员，在市场复苏时失去竞争优势。也没有一家银行想第一个裁员，因为这意味着公开承认其员工无所事事。

另外还有员工士气的问题。

“我经历过几次低迷时期，但凡可能，你真的不想裁掉很多人，”一位投资银行业的资深员工表示。“这会打击士气，形成可怕的工作氛围。”

在这种背景下，投资银行几乎每周都在修改员工编制要求。但许多资深银行家私下里承认，如果到今年晚些时候情况仍没有改善，他们准备届时裁掉数百人。

由于担心竞争对手抢走优秀人才，多数银行今年支付了丰厚奖金，以留住员工。但全球高管猎头和咨询公司Options Group首席执行官迈克尔•卡普(Michael Karp)表示，在第一季度业绩公布后，这些可能就会开始裁员。

卡普表示：“银行正采取温和的方式裁员。他们的补偿风险（奖金）管理得非常好，希望在员工数量方面也能如此。”

已经有一些确凿的证据表明就业市场正在走软。

市场研究公司Experian发现，去年11月至12月，伦敦金融城新的职位空缺减少了45%，而前一年仅为16%。该公司预测，到今年年底，伦敦金融城将裁减1万个职位。

一家欧洲大型投资银行的董事总经理表示，该行业将尽可能裁员，也就是说约占员工总数的15%。根据这种悲观看法，与伦敦金融城相关的裁员今年可能超过5万。

他表示：“越往前看，情景越糟糕。”他还表示，工作量不足——几乎没有新的交易或融资委托，而这是投资银行的主要收入来源。

另一位驻伦敦董事总经理（来自一家美国公司）表示：“任何一家（表示自己）知道今年年底员工数量情况的投行都是在撒谎。”

他表示，他所在的银行今年在年度筛选中采取了更积极的措施。他表示：“今年我们确实要解雇那些表现不佳的员工。”

与此同时，一线银行雇员表示，他们纷纷忙着与潜在客户会面，尽可能抓住那一丁点儿业务——这不仅是因为他们想造成忙碌的印象。

正如一位通过在股市上发行新股为企业融资的银行家所言：“你很害怕，一大块大业务突然出现，你却没抓住——你错过了那张入场券。”