谁与谁“脱钩”？
We have completed seven full weeks of 2008. At the close of business on Friday, many stock markets around the world – including some of the best performers of 2006 and 2007 – had dropped much more than the US, whether developed or developing.
For example, the previously high-flying DAX was down 15.6 per cent, virtually double the year-to-date decline in the S&P 500. So are both the high-flyers of the previous two years, China and India.
Brazil, the cheapest valued BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) with the best improving economy of them cyclically, is up slightly, as are some of the N11 markets, such as Egypt, Nigeria and even Pakistan. N11 is our definition of the “next eleven largest emerging economies in terms of potential” as defined by their population size.
Yet 90 per cent of the clients I engage with are spellbound by the US recession risk and the endless saga of the “next shoe to drop” in the credit crisis.
As we have argued since December, it is time to consider “recoupling” as opposed to “decoupling”.
We were major advocates of the decoupling notion in 2006 and 2007, linked to our optimism about the rise of our beloved BRICs and the structural opportunities that would arise.
Now, decoupling and such phrases have all sorts of conceptual issues with them. But in those years, it struck us as a good way to capture the likely slowdown in the US housing market, the shift of US monetary policy to an eventual easing, and the ability of the China-led BRICs story to help the rest of the world soften the impact of US weakness.
By and large, this played out in most financial markets, with US stocks underperforming many others, interest rate differentials narrowing, commodity prices soaring and, of course, the dollar weakening against an ever widening range of currencies.
But now, what is left for decoupling? Japan never managed to really decouple from the US. For others, decoupling from the US was to some extent sustainable only so long as the US slowdown was not too severe, and most crucially China was firing on all cylinders.
But can decoupling take place when China is looking a bit less vibrant?
Can other countries decouple from the US when US policymakers have woken up to their challenges, and when they have come up with – and are implementing – one of the biggest economic stimulus packages in modern history?
The one per cent of GDP fiscal stimulus on top of the Fed's indirect deliberate steepening of the US yield curve suggests investors need to be careful about becoming excessively bearish on the US relative to elsewhere.
As markets, as opposed to market chatter, are showing, it might be wise to think the opposite.
Even the US dollar, which still suffers from overwhelmingly negative media coverage, has performed better than most major currencies since January, especially sterling and the Canadian dollar.
Indeed, perhaps with the important exception of the renminbi, it is tough to see the bearish case for the dollar any more against any major currency. What about China? We think, for the first time since the Asian crisis in 1997, that China might surprise slightly – emphasis slightly – on the downside. By finally accelerating the speed of its currency appreciation, and persisting with other tightening measures, China may be on the verge of slowing real GDP growth below 10 per cent, something which now seems necessary to help bring inflation under control.
There is some, albeit mixed, evidence of this already, with exports and investment spending showing softer tones. India is also showing pretty clear signs of having come off the boil.
So what is going to help decoupling for others?
There remains a mood among many, including some European policymakers, that they can be immune from the US slowing, as has been the typical assumption in the past.
However, if China does slow somewhat, this is going to be harder to sustain. Maybe the US is going to “decouple” from the rest.
The writer is chief economist at Goldman Sachs
2008年已经开始整整7周。截至上周五收市，无论是发达国家还是发展中国家，全球许多股市，包括2006年和2007年一些表现最佳的股市，跌幅远远超美国股市。
例如，此前一路上涨的德国DAX指数下跌15.6%，相当于标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)今年迄今跌幅的两倍。前两年高涨的中国和印度股市也是如此。
作为“金砖四国”（巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国）里估值最低、周期性经济状况改善程度最好的国家，巴西股市小幅上扬，埃及、尼日利亚甚至巴基斯坦等一些“N11”市场的股市也略有走高。N11是我们根据其人口规模而定义的“就经济潜力而言、下一批11个最大新兴经济体”。
不过，在我接触的客户中，90%的人陷于美国衰退风险，以及信贷危机中“即将扔出的下一只鞋”这个没完没了的故事。
正如我们去年12月份以来所主张的那样，与“脱钩”相反，现在是考虑“重新挂钩”的时候了。
2006年和2007年，我们是脱钩论的主要支持者，原因是我们对于我们所钟爱的“金砖四国”的崛起和随之而来的结构性机遇持乐观看法。
目前，脱钩等词汇本身已出现各种各样的概念性问题。但这些年以来，它向我们提供了一种很好的方式，捕捉美国住宅市场潜在的放缓、美国向最终宽松的货币政策的转变，以及以中国为首的“金砖四国”帮助全球其它地区缓和美国经济走弱影响的能力。
总体而言，随着美国股市表现不如全球其它许多股市、利差不断收窄、大宗商品价格日益飙升，当然还有美元兑越来越广泛的货币汇率持续走软，这个概念在多数金融市场上大显身手。
但就目前来看，脱钩论还剩下什么？日本事实上从未能够与美国脱钩。至于其它国家，只有在美国经济放缓程度不太严重，并且最关键的是中国经济各方面运转正常时，与美国脱钩在一定程度上才具有可持续性。
但是，当中国经济活力看起来略有消退时，脱钩情况能发生吗？
当美国决策者已经意识到他们面临的挑战时，以及当他们已经提出并且正在实施美国现代史上最大的一揽子经济刺激措施时，其它国家可以与美国脱钩吗？
除美联储(Fed)间接故意导致美国收益率曲线不断变陡以外，相当于国内生产总值(GDP)1%的财政激励措施表明，投资者不要过度唱跌美国相对其它地区的表现。
目前的市场而非市场传言表明，反向思考或许是明智的。
即便是美元，虽然传媒报道仍然普遍持悲观看法，但自今年1月份以来，其表现超过了多数主要货币，特别是英镑和加元。
事实上，或许除了人民币这个重要的例外，我们很难找到进一步看跌美元兑其它主要货币汇率的理由。中国的情况如何呢？我们认为，自1997年亚洲危机以来，中国经济可能首次略微（强调，只是略微）出人意料地呈现下行趋势。通过最终加快人民币升值速度，并且坚持实施其它紧缩举措，中国可能将GDP实际增长率逐渐放缓至10%以下。目前看来，这在一定程度上乃是抑制通胀的必要之举。
鉴于出口和投资支出呈现走软迹象，目前有一些证据表明中国经济已经开始放缓——尽管这些证据参差不齐。印度也正在出现相当明显的降温迹象。
那么，谁将帮助其它国家脱钩呢？
正如他们过去一直认为的那样，包括一些欧洲决策者在内的许多人仍然认为，他们能够避免美国经济放缓的影响。
不过，如果中国经济确实有所放缓，脱钩趋势将更加难以为继。或许是美国将要与其它地区“脱钩”。