全球化有助于富国就业

Increased trade, outsourcing and offshoring do not create unemployment but boost the number of jobs in advanced economies, a study of European labour markets says today.

The European Economic Advisory Group, a consortium of European academics organised by the Munich-based Ifo Institute, argues that although globalisation can lead to a fall in demand for certain types of skill, it also tends to sweep away job-destroying rigidities in labour markets.

The evidence from the group's work suggests the positive effects of globalisation outweigh the negative effects. Although the group concedes that its statistical work remains “crude”, the report concludes that globalisation is likely, if anything, to lead to long-term rises in employment.

“If so, globalisation will not be a curse for employment in western Europe, it could instead turn out to be a blessing,” the report says.

But the EEAG report suggests these gains are not likely to be evenly distributed. Richer and higher-skilled people would gain, while there could be losers among lower-skilled employees facing greater competition from overseas workers and immigrants.

Although the gains from trade have the side-effect of increasing inequality, the group recommends that governments avoid policies that try to preserve employment and wage equality in the face of overseas competition. Rather, they should “try to allocate the gains from globalisation in a ‘fair way' and ensure that groups that might otherwise lose out also share the benefits”.

The group strongly condemns German policies of higher minimum wages, because it can price people out of jobs, and higher unemployment benefits, as they makes joblessness more attractive.

Instead, it advocates cushioning the blow for those finding themselves in jobs that are no longer viable in rich countries. Following practice that has been at the heart of policy in the UK and Nordic countries, the focus should be on government retraining schemes, public sector support severance pay for displaced workers, payments for employees taking a new job with lower pay and other in-work state benefits.

Recent economic research has often found a greater link between globalisation and job losses. But the EEAG argued that this research was incomplete because it tended to assume that apart from increased competition from abroad, labour markets would remain unchanged.

The authors said, instead, that there were at least six ways in which globalisation would also tend to increase the flexibility of European labour markets, boosting employment.

These include increasing competition in markets and demand for output; reducing the power of unions to price labour too high; and lowering the price of imports, which increases living standards without making employees more expensive for companies.

The report found that including trade-related data in statistical models of employment suggested that the more open to trade a country is, the more jobs are created and the lower is unemployment.

日前公布的一份欧洲劳动力市场研究报告显示，贸易、外包及离岸业务的增长非但不会造成失业，反而会增加发达经济体的就业岗位。

欧洲经济顾问组织(European Economic Advisory Group)指出，虽然全球化可能导致某类技能需求下降，但它往往也会扫清劳动力市场上破坏就业的僵化机制。欧洲经济顾问组织是总部位于慕尼黑的德国经济研究所(Ifo Institute)创办的一个欧洲学者团体。

该组织的研究显示，全球化的正面效应超过了负面影响。虽然该组织承认其统计数据仍然较为“粗糙”，但报告的结论是，全球化最有可能促成就业的长期增长。

报告表示：“如果是这样，全球化就不会成为对西欧就业局势的诅咒，反而会是一个福音。”

但欧洲经济顾问组织提出，这些好处不可能均匀分布。较为富有和拥有较高技能的人群将会受益，失意者则是那些技能较低的员工，他们将面临来自海外工人和移民更激烈的竞争。

虽然贸易的好处会带来不平等现象加剧的副作用，但该组织建议各国政府在面对海外竞争时，要避免采用试图保护就业和均等工资的政策。相反，他们应当“尝试以‘公平的方式'分配全球化带来的好处，确保那些本来会输的群体也可以分享到好处”。

该组织强烈谴责了德国提高最低工资和失业福利的政策，因为提高最低工资会减少就业机会，而高福利会增加失业的吸引力。

相反，该组织倡议政府采取措施，缓和现有工作不再能养活自己的富国工人承受的冲击。根据作为英国和北欧国家政策核心的实践经验，政府应该致力于再培训项目，为失业工人提供得到公共部门支持的离职金，为重新上岗但工资较低的员工提供补助及其它在职政府福利。

最近的经济调查常常发现，全球化与工作岗位流失之间存在更密切的关联。但欧洲经济顾问组织提出，此类调查不够全面，因为它通常会假设，如果来自海外的竞争没有加剧，劳动力市场就会保持不变。

但这份报告的作者表示，全球化至少会通过六种途径提高欧洲劳动力市场的灵活性，促进就业增长。

这些途径包括：增加市场竞争和产品需求；削弱工会过分抬高工资水平的能力；降低进口价格，从而在不抬高企业人力成本的情况下提高生活水平。

此份报告发现，将贸易相关数据纳入就业统计模型后的结果显示，一个国家的贸易开放程度越高，创造的工作岗位就越多，失业率也就越低。